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Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, Fanatics Markets and more prediction market platforms in the United States – what these sites cover, what these apps really cost, where they’re legal, and how their event trading stacks up against a sportsbook. Horse.bet doesn’t hold affiliate codes or agreements with these platforms; we offer an overview, our reviews of their markets, promotions and official terms only.
Can you bet the Kentucky Derby on a prediction market? Not in 2026. No major prediction market – Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts or Fanatics – offers Kentucky Derby or any pari-mutuel horse racing contracts. Polymarket briefly opened a 2026 Derby market, then refunded every trade and pulled it after Churchill Downs objected. Below we explain why racing is the one sport they can’t touch.
Referral credit for new users + 3.50% APY on $250+
GET!code applied automaticallyThe category leader and a standalone CFTC exchange. Widest market menu, custom combos, in-play trading and an exit mechanic that works like a stock trade – plus interest on idle cash.
States: Nationwide; sports off in MA, MI, NV, WA
Deposit $10, get $25 in trading credit
GET!code applied automaticallyThe world’s best-known prediction market, now CFTC-regulated in the US and funded in dollars by card, bank or wallet. Deep liquidity, the fastest interface in the space – but iPhone only and slow withdrawals.
States: All states except Nevada
Trade $5, get $200 in Predictions Dollars (paid over 21 days)
GET!code applied automatically · opt inDraftKings’ event-trading product, now running on its own DKeX exchange. The biggest headline welcome package in the category, combos and MLB player contracts, in California, Texas, Georgia and other non-betting states.
States: Sports in around 18 states without DK Sportsbook
Rotating Predicts Bonus for new users
GET!code applied automaticallyFanDuel’s mobile-only app, built with CME Group. A clean Yes/No flow, live trading and early cash-out, strong consumer-protection tools and a simple fee of 2¢ per $1 of potential payout.
States: All 50 for non-sports; sports in 18 states
Up to $150 in FanCash (14-day trade match)
GET!code applied automaticallySports-first and powered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, with one of the most polished apps in the space and FanCash rewards. The catch: it’s 21+.
States: 22 states + four territories
No prediction-specific welcome bonus
GET!code applied automaticallyEvent contracts inside the Robinhood app via its Prediction Markets Hub – zero extra download for existing users. Commission is capped at 1¢ a contract, and Robinhood’s own Rothera exchange is growing.
States: Most states; not Maryland, no new sports in NV or MI
Welcome offers below reflect each platform’s official program only. The “$10–$20 with code XYZ” deals you’ll see elsewhere are media-affiliate referral codes, not standing operator offers – we don’t list them.
| Platform | Official offer | Promo code | Where available | Min age | Exchange / regulator | Fees | Best for |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Referral credit (in-app) + 3.50% APY on $250+ | None needed | Nationwide; sports off in MA, MI, NV, WA | 18+ | KalshiEX LLC – CFTC DCM | Taker up to ~2¢/contract; makers less | Widest market menu |
| Polymarket US | Deposit $10, get $25 credit | None needed | All states except Nevada | 18+ | QCX LLC (Polymarket US) – CFTC DCM | $1.74 per 100 contracts at 50¢; maker rebates | Liquidity and price |
| DraftKings Predictions | Trade $5, get $200 in Predictions Dollars (over 21 days) | None – opt in | Sports in ~18 states without DK Sportsbook; not Nevada | 18+ | DraftKings Predictions (FCM) – DKeX exchange | A cent or two per contract | DraftKings customers |
| FanDuel Predicts | Rotating Predicts Bonus | None needed | All 50 (non-sports); sports in 18 states | 18+ | FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC (FCM) – CME Group | 2¢ per $1 of potential payout | Beginners, live trading |
| Fanatics Markets | Up to $150 in FanCash | None needed | 22 states + 4 territories | 21+ | Fanatics Markets (FCM) – Crypto.com | Derivatives North America | About 1.4¢ per contract at 50¢ (fee schedule) | App experience |
| Robinhood | None for predictions | None | Most states; not MD; no new sports in NV, MI | 18+ | Robinhood Derivatives (FCM) – KalshiEX, ForecastEx, Rothera, NADEX | Commission ≤1¢/contract + exchange fee ≤1¢ | Existing Robinhood users |
US App Store ratings, October 2026: DraftKings Predictions 4.9★ (17K ratings), Kalshi 4.8★ (500K+), FanDuel Predicts 4.8★ (6.8K), Fanatics Markets 4.7★ (1.3K), Polymarket US 4.5★ (63K) and Robinhood 4.3★ (4.9M – a rating for the whole Robinhood app). State availability is in active litigation and changes month to month – each review carries a dated, verified status box.
Ranked by market coverage, fees, ease of use and app quality. Crypto.com’s own OG app, ProphetX and Underdog also offer event contracts in some states; we haven’t reviewed them here.
A prediction market is an exchange where people buy and sell contracts on the outcome of a future event – a football game, a Fed decision, an election, tomorrow’s high in Chicago. Each contract asks a Yes/No question and pays $1 if the answer turns out to be Yes. Because traders keep buying and selling, the price moves with the crowd’s view of the odds, which is why prediction markets are often quoted as forecasts.
In the US these products are “event contracts”, a type of derivative overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than state gaming boards. The exchanges themselves are designated contract markets (DCMs), and brokers such as FanDuel Prediction Markets, DraftKings Predictions, Fanatics Markets and Robinhood Derivatives are registered futures commission merchants (FCMs) that route your orders to them.
Every market is a binary question – “Will Team A win?” You buy Yes or No. You can’t hold both sides.
Contracts trade from $0.01 to $0.99. A Yes at $0.65 means the market prices a ~65% chance.
Right prediction, each contract pays $1. Wrong, it’s worth $0. Your profit is $1 minus what you paid, less fees.
Unlike a sportsbook bet, you can sell your position mid-event at the current price to lock a profit or cut a loss.
The price of a Yes contract is the market’s estimate of the chance it happens. If you’re used to American odds, the conversion is simple – and it shows why a cheap contract is a long shot, not a bargain:
| Contract price | Implied chance | Equivalent American odds | Profit per contract if right |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.25 | 25% | +300 | $0.75 |
| $0.40 | 40% | +150 | $0.60 |
| $0.50 | 50% | +100 / even | $0.50 |
| $0.65 | 65% | -186 | $0.35 |
| $0.80 | 80% | -400 | $0.20 |
Three things move what you actually pay. The spread – the gap between the best price to buy and the best price to sell – is tight on busy markets and wide on niche ones. Fees are charged per contract or on the payout, depending on the platform. And liquidity decides whether a big order fills at one price or walks up the book. Unlike a sportsbook, there’s no built-in margin on both sides; you see the fee instead.
You don’t need to be a Wall Street trader to use a prediction market. If you’re 18 or older (21 at Fanatics Markets) and live in a state where it’s allowed, here’s exactly how to place your first trade.
You must be 18+ with a U.S. address. As of October 2026, court orders have switched off sports contracts in Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada and Washington on at least some platforms, and each app has its own state list. The app tells you at sign-up.
Choose one – Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts or Fanatics Markets – and register with email, Google or Apple ID.
Like opening a bank or brokerage account, you confirm your name, address and date of birth (often your SSN too). Some apps add short suitability questions. The KYC check usually takes a couple of minutes.
Link a bank account (usually free) or use a debit card or wallet such as Apple Pay, PayPal or Venmo (often a small fee of up to 2%). Minimums are low – typically $5 to $10.
Browse by category – an NFL game, an NBA future, a Fed rate decision. Stick to events you actually follow at first.
Decide which side you believe, check the price (it’s the implied chance), pick how many contracts, and confirm the order.
Wait for the event to settle, or sell your position before it ends to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
Withdraw winnings to your bank from the Transfers screen. Bank transfers are free; debit is faster on most apps. Some platforms only let you withdraw once your deposit has fully cleared.
One thing you can’t trade on any of these platforms is horse racing – no prediction market offers it. If that’s what you came for, skip the event contracts and use a licensed ADW racebook instead.
Sports event contracts are regulated federally by the CFTC, so platforms argue they’re legal nationwide. State regulators and tribes disagree, and in 2026 the courts split: the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi against New Jersey in April, while the Ninth Circuit (Nevada, August 28) and the Sixth Circuit (Ohio, September 25) sided with the states. New Jersey and Robinhood have both petitioned the Supreme Court, which had not taken a prediction-market case as of October 2026.
| Status (October 2026) | States | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Restricted by court order | Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Washington | Sports contracts switched off on at least some platforms |
| At risk | Ohio, Tennessee, Utah | Courts have ruled for the state; enforcement can follow |
| Contested | Arizona, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin | Lawsuits or enforcement, but sports contracts generally still live |
| Available | The remaining states and DC, including Texas, Florida and Georgia | No major state action |
Each platform adds its own rules on top. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts only offer sports contracts where they don’t run a sportsbook (and never on tribal land); Fanatics Markets is live in 22 states plus four territories; Robinhood blocks Maryland; Polymarket US excludes Nevada. Non-sports markets – economics, weather, finance – are usually available far more widely.
In June 2026 the CFTC proposed a rule that would keep most sports markets but let it bar manipulation-prone ones (player injuries, officiating, single plays). The agency also insists it has exclusive jurisdiction and has sued several states to stop enforcement. Treat any “legal in all 50 states” claim with caution and check the dated status box in each review.
If you live in a legal betting state, compare the licensed apps on our US sportsbooks hub, or go straight to the FanDuel promo code, DraftKings bonus code and Fanatics Sportsbook bonus guides.
The category leader and a standalone CFTC exchange. Widest market menu, custom combos, in-play, and an exit mechanic that works like a stock trade.
Now CFTC-regulated in the US and funded in dollars. Deep liquidity, a clean mobile-first design and its first official US welcome credit.
Event contracts live inside the Robinhood app via its Prediction Markets Hub. Zero extra download for existing users, with Robinhood’s own Rothera exchange taking a growing share of contracts.
Launched December 2025 and now running on DraftKings’ own DKeX exchange, with sports contracts in around 18 states including California, Texas and Georgia.
FanDuel’s event-contract app (December 2025), built with CME Group. Live trading and early cash-out in a UX familiar to FanDuel users.
Sports-first, powered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, with FanCash rewards and one of the most polished apps in the space.
Here’s the twist most comparison sites skip: none of the six platforms needs a promo code to unlock its official welcome offer. DraftKings and Fanatics ask you to opt in, FanDuel and Polymarket apply theirs automatically, Kalshi’s value comes through referrals and interest, and Robinhood has no prediction bonus at all. The codes plastered across the web are affiliate referral codes that change by site.
The most useful benchmark is the cost of 100 contracts at 50¢ – the most expensive point on most fee curves:
| Platform | Fee model | Approx. fee, 100 contracts at 50¢ |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 0.07 × C × P × (1 – P), taker | $1.75 (maker $0.44) |
| Polymarket US | 0.0695 × C × P × (1 – P), taker | $1.74 (makers can earn rebates) |
| Fanatics Markets | Per-contract table, max 2¢ | $1.40 |
| Robinhood | 10% × P × (1 – P), capped at 1¢, plus exchange fee | $1.00 + up to $1.00 |
| FanDuel Predicts | 2¢ per $1 of potential payout | $2.00 |
| DraftKings Predictions | Per-contract, a cent or two | About $2.00 |
Deposits matter too: ACH is free almost everywhere, while debit cards and wallets typically cost up to 2%.
Generally, gains from prediction markets are income the IRS expects you to report, but there’s no event-contract-specific IRS guidance yet, and the treatment can differ from sportsbook winnings. Reporting varies by platform: Robinhood, for example, says it doesn’t issue a 1099 for event contracts and that its annual statement isn’t a tax form, while interest and some promotional rewards (Fanatics notes FanCash may count as income) can be reportable. Keep a record of every deposit, trade, fee and withdrawal, and speak to a tax professional about your own situation. This isn’t tax advice.
Calling it trading doesn’t change the risk: a contract can go to zero, and fast-moving live markets make it easy to chase losses. Every platform here offers limits or self-exclusion – Kalshi has voluntary self-exclusion, DraftKings has My Budget and Controls for deposit limits and activity alerts, and FanDuel has its Consumer Protection tools. Set a deposit limit before you start, never trade money you need, and step away if it stops being fun.
Since no event-contract platform can offer racing, the only way to bet the Derby, the Breeders’ Cup or any track is a licensed advance-deposit racebook. Racing’s pari-mutuel pools sit under the Interstate Horseracing Act of 1978, which gives tracks consent rights over wagering on their races – the reason Polymarket’s 2026 Derby market didn’t survive. Compare the welcome offers and coverage on the apps that actually take racing bets.
Offers, codes, fees and state lists are checked against the operators’ own pages and state or federal regulators. Last checked .